Dillon Rudy, a 29-year-old resident of Lincoln Park, finds himself in a situation that has become typical for the modern American real estate market: a comfortable mortgage rate at 3.7%, limited housing options, and economic uncertainty are holding him back from moving. And he is not alone. Thousands of homeowners in the city and suburbs are in a state of "paralyzed market."
"I'm a cliché: married to the rate," — admits Rudy. His three-room apartment has become cramped for his family, but stepping out of his comfort zone means taking on a new mortgage at a significantly higher rate. "Money is so cheap, it's hard to let go of it."
Despite caution, the market is beginning to stir. The first quarter of 2025 brought a slight increase in sales volumes — up 5% within the city and 1.2% across Illinois. Although these figures are modest, they signal the emergence of a new impulse.
According to Illinois Realtors, the average sale price of housing in the city in March increased to $380,000 from $360,000 in February. At the mega-region level, the average price was $360,000, reflecting the national trend towards rising prices driven by a supply shortage. In March, rates for 30-year fixed mortgages reached 6.65%, which still dampens demand.
"Serious buyers enter the market when an object is correctly appraised and well presented. The market hasn't stopped; it is transforming," — believes Tommy Choi, president of Illinois Realtors.
However, owners like Rudy are weighing: sell now and lock in profit, or keep the asset, hoping for further rate reductions. Dan Spitz, head of Captivate Real Estate Group, notes: "Even with very high sales prices, many can't afford to buy new real estate — they literally have nowhere to go."
The hottest areas remain Lincoln Park and West Town, where deals have been recorded with prices exceeding the stated amounts. But overall, the market is characterized by asymmetry: fierce competition from buyers amid sluggish activity from sellers.
The market sentiment is also affected by the macroeconomic backdrop. Trade wars under the Trump administration and the threat of recession create uncertainty that impacts consumer confidence. As Jeff Smith from the DePaul Housing Research Institute states, "Uncertainty regarding tariffs and monetary policy is holding back both buyers and sellers."
According to NAR data, in March of this year, the median sale price across the U.S. was $403,700 — marking the 21st consecutive month of annual growth. However, national sales for the same period fell by 5.9%, making it the worst March since 2009.
In an environment of chronic supply shortages, even moderate rate reductions — below 6% — could give the market a new boost. But for now, inertia prevails.
For Rudy and thousands like him, the decision remains difficult. Sell? Rent out? Wait? In a city that changes more slowly than rates do, every decision seems simultaneously correct and risky.
"In Chicago, as in America overall, housing remains not just a roof over one's head but a mirror of the nation's sentiments."
