In a remote corner of American territory, where the cold winds of the North Pacific meet geopolitical storms, russian President Vladimir putin is preparing for a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump that could rewrite the rules of the game on the global stage. This summit, scheduled for Friday, will not only touch upon Ukraine's fate but also become an arena for economic temptations, where putin will appeal to Trump's business instincts by offering "huge untapped potential" in trade and investment between the two countries. According to high-level sources in moscow and Washington, with whom The New York Times has spoken, the russian leader sees this meeting as an opportunity not only to freeze the conflict in Ukraine but also to weaken sanctions that have been squeezing the russian economy since 2022.
This hastily organized meeting — the first on American soil for putin since his visit to George W. Bush in 2007 — takes place amid escalating rhetoric from Trump, who recently accused the kremlin of "feeding Washington nonsense" regarding Ukraine. However, as analysts familiar with the dynamic between the two leaders note, putin is counting on personal chemistry, which was evident during their six previous meetings, including the controversial Helsinki summit in 2018, where Trump publicly questioned the conclusions of American intelligence about russian interference in the elections. Like now, economics was a key element: Trump, a businessman by calling, has always sought "profitable deals," while putin seeks ways to bypass isolation.
According to insider information from a former kremlin official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject, putin will bring not only diplomats but also key economic players, such as Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, the architect of russia's strategy against Western sanctions. "putin will present peace as a business opportunity: lifting sanctions will open doors for American investments in russian energy, raw materials, and technology," the source said. Indeed, trade between the U.S. and russia has fallen by 90% since 2021 due to sanctions, but Moscow has adapted, redirecting itself to Asia, and now offers Trump a stake in this "recovery." putin's advisor, Yuri Ushakov, has already stated that the leaders will discuss "economic ties," including a potential new arms control treaty, which could become a "bonus" for Trump, allowing him to claim a "victory" in global stability.
For Kyiv and its European allies, this meeting is like a bolt from the blue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the negotiations "meaningless" without Ukraine's participation, emphasizing that any deal risks becoming "just a show." Washington analysts consulted by The Times agree: success prospects are estimated at 25%, as Moscow insists on recognizing control over Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions — territories that create a strategic "land bridge" to Crimea. Trump's envoy, Steve Biegun, who recently met with putin in the kremlin, allegedly offered Kyiv concessions in exchange for a ceasefire, but details remain controversial: initially, there was talk of russian withdrawals from the south, but Moscow later denied any territorial compromises.
"putin views Trump as a partner in the authoritarian club — alongside Erdogan, Xi, and Modi," said a russian expert close to the russian Foreign Ministry, in conversation with The Times. This view is confirmed by historical precedents: during G20 and APEC meetings, Trump often praised putin as a "strong leader," ignoring criticism regarding human rights or aggression in Ukraine. However, the risks for putin are obvious. If Trump leaves empty-handed, this could provoke new sanctions — Trump has already hinted at tougher measures if hostilities continue. Moscow political analyst Andriy Kolesnikov, quoted by the British press, warns: "Trump's patience is not endless; putin will have to give something, perhaps a temporary halt to long-range strikes."
But beyond the territory lie deeper demands from moscow: "demilitarization" and "denazification" of Ukraine, which in practice means abandoning NATO and changing the government in Kyiv. "It seems Trump believes putin is only interested in land, but that is an illusion — the real goal is to neutralize Ukraine as an independent state," said a former russian official. In Washington, sources in the White House familiar with preparations note that Trump is cautious with expectations, focusing on "advantageous opportunities" for American business, such as access to russian resources in exchange for easing sanctions.
This summit, organized after fruitless negotiations in Turkey, could become a step toward a "New Yalta" — a division of spheres of influence that putin dreams of. For Trump, it’s a chance to step back from sanctions — which he has never been enthusiastic about — and to declare a "peaceful victory." However, as the history of their relations shows, the advantage might be with putin — a former KGB agent who skillfully plays on opponents’ weaknesses. In a world where economy and war are intertwined, the outcome of this meeting will determine not only Ukraine’s fate but also the balance of power between superpowers.
